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Documentation Index

Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://cernio.gadulabs.com/llms.txt

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Cernio — Financial Projections

Version: 2.0 Date: 2026-04-03 Author: Aleks Özkuyumcu (Founder) + Claude Opus 4.6 Basis: BIZ-2 (Revenue & Cost), BIZ-5 (Market Sizing), BIZ-7 (Production Simulation) Timeline: Y1 = April 2026 - March 2027 (beta Aug 2026, first revenue ~Nov 2026) Supersedes: _archive_v074/03-financial-projections.md (v1.0 — DEPRECATED)

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Assumptions

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Core Parameters

ParameterConservativeRealisticOptimisticSource
Beta launchAugust 2026August 2026July 2026TODO roadmap
First revenueNovember 2026October 2026September 2026Beta → paid timeline
Pro price$49/mo$49/mo$49/moBIZ-2 confirmed
Team price$149/mo$149/mo$149/moBIZ-2
Monthly logo churn6%5%3%PLG benchmarks
Free → paid conversion3%5%8%PLG benchmarks
Annual plan adoption15%25%35%Chargebee data
Expansion (credit packs, upsell)0%5% Y2, 10% Y310% Y2, 20% Y3
Team plan adoption0% Y15% Y2, 12% Y310% Y2, 20% Y3
AI cost per Pro user/month$10.00$8.60$6.00BIZ-7
Lemon Squeezy fee5.5%5.5%5.5%Fixed

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Acquisition Channels (Monthly New Paying Customers)

ChannelY1 (monthly avg)Y2 (monthly avg)Y3 (monthly avg)
DOSE warm leads (email)1-20.5 (pool depleting)0
LinkedIn organic0.5-11-22-3
PLG self-serve1-23-55-10
Personal network0.5-10.50.5
Referrals01-22-4
Trade fairs00.5-11-2
SEO/content00.5-12-5
Total new/month3-67-1213-25

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Year 1: April 2026 — March 2027

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Monthly Breakdown

MonthPhaseNew PayingChurnedActive PayingMRR
Apr 2026Development000$0
May 2026Development000$0
Jun 2026Development000$0
Jul 2026Pre-beta000$0
Aug 2026Beta launch000$0
Sep 2026Beta (free)000$0
Oct 2026Beta → paid202$98
Nov 2026Early revenue305$245
Dec 2026Growing308$392
Jan 2027Growing3011$539
Feb 2027Growing4114$686
Mar 2027Y1 end4117$833
Y1 Summary (Realistic):
MetricValue
End-of-year paying customers17
End-of-year MRR$833
Total Y1 revenue~$3,000
Total Y1 costs (COGS + OpEx)~$5,000
Y1 net income-$2,000 (development phase)
Cash required (cumulative)~$5,000 (founder covers from savings)

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Year 2: April 2027 — March 2028

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Quarterly Summary

QuarterNew PayingChurnedEnd ActiveEnd MRR
Q1 (Apr-Jun)25438$2,050
Q2 (Jul-Sep)28561$3,400
Q3 (Oct-Dec)32786$4,900
Q4 (Jan-Mar)358113$6,700
Y2 Summary (Realistic):
MetricValue
End-of-year paying customers113
End-of-year MRR$6,700
End-of-year ARR$80,400
Total Y2 revenue$48,000
Blended ARPU (incl. Team + credit packs)$56/mo
COGS (~24% of revenue)$11,500
OpEx$6,500
Y2 net income$30,000
Y2 net margin62.5%

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Y2 Revenue Composition

StreamRevenue%
Pro subscriptions$38,40080%
Team subscriptions (starts Q3)$4,80010%
Credit packs$2,4005%
Annual plan uplift$2,4005%

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Year 3: April 2028 — March 2029

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Quarterly Summary

QuarterNew PayingChurnedEnd ActiveEnd MRR
Q1 (Apr-Jun)4512146$9,500
Q2 (Jul-Sep)5515186$13,000
Q3 (Oct-Dec)6017229$16,500
Q4 (Jan-Mar)6518276$20,500
Y3 Summary (Realistic):
MetricValue
End-of-year paying customers276
End-of-year MRR$20,500
End-of-year ARR$246,000
Total Y3 revenue$168,000
Blended ARPU$68/mo
COGS (~22%)$37,000
OpEx (incl. first part-time hire)$30,000
Y3 net income$101,000
Y3 net margin60.1%

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Y3 Revenue Composition

StreamRevenue%
Pro subscriptions$100,80060%
Team subscriptions$33,60020%
Credit packs$16,80010%
Annual plan uplift + expansion$16,80010%

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3-Year Summary

MetricY1Y2Y3
End-of-year customers17113276
MRR (end)$833$6,700$20,500
ARR (end)$10,000$80,400$246,000
Total revenue$3,000$48,000$168,000
Net income-$2,000$30,000$101,000
Cumulative net-$2,000$28,000$129,000
Net margin—62.5%60.1%

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Growth Rates

MetricY1→Y2Y2→Y3
Revenue growth1,500%250%
Customer growth565%144%
MRR growth704%206%

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Sensitivity Analysis — 3 Scenarios

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Conservative Scenario

MetricY1Y2Y3
Customers (end)94580
MRR (end)$441$2,500$5,000
ARR (end)$5,300$30,000$60,000
Revenue$1,500$18,000$45,000
Net income-$3,500$8,000$15,000
Assumptions: 6% churn, 3% free→paid, no Team plan, no expansion revenue, slower organic growth.

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Optimistic Scenario

MetricY1Y2Y3
Customers (end)38250600
MRR (end)$1,860$17,500$48,000
ARR (end)$22,300$210,000$576,000
Revenue$7,500$120,000$360,000
Net income$2,000$80,000$230,000
Assumptions: 3% churn, 8% free→paid, early Team adoption, 20% expansion, PLG flywheel accelerates.

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Scenario Comparison

Metric (Y3)ConservativeRealisticOptimistic
ARR$60K$246K$576K
Customers80276600
Net margin33%60%64%
Cumulative cash$20K$129K$312K

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Cash Flow Timeline

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Monthly Cash Position (Realistic)

PeriodRevenueCostsNetCumulative
Apr-Sep 2026 (pre-revenue)$0$500/mo-$3,000-$3,000
Oct-Dec 2026 (early revenue)$735$400+$335-$2,665
Jan-Mar 2027$2,058$600+$1,458-$1,207
Apr-Jun 2027$4,800$1,200+$3,600+$2,393
Jul-Sep 2027$9,000$2,400+$6,600+$8,993
Cash positive~April 2027
Key insight: Cumulative cash turns positive ~12 months after project start. Total cash needed from founder: ~$3,000-5,000 (6 months of pre-revenue development costs).

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Key Milestones

MilestoneRealistic TimelineSignificance
Beta launchAugust 2026First users (free)
First paying customerOctober 2026Revenue ≠ 0
Break-even (monthly)October 20262 users covers $81/mo fixed costs
10 paying customersJanuary 2027Early validation signal
$1K MRRMarch 2027First milestone
Cumulative cash positiveApril 2027Self-sustaining
50 paying customersJune 2027PMF signal
$5K MRROctober 2027Meaningful revenue
100 paying customersDecember 2027Growth proof
$10K MRRApril 2028Sustainable business
$20K MRRMarch 2029Ready for acceleration
250+ customersMarch 2029SOM validation

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Document Dependencies

RelatedDocument
Revenue model & pricingBIZ-2: Revenue & Cost Structure
Bottom-up customer acquisitionBIZ-5: ROI & Market Sizing
Infrastructure costsBIZ-7: Production Simulation
Investment scenariosBIZ-6: Investor Analysis (pending)
GTM channel detailsBIZ-8: GTM Strategy (pending)