Documentation Index
Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://cernio.gadulabs.com/llms.txt
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Cernio — ROI & Market Sizing
Version: 2.0
Date: 2026-04-03
Author: Aleks Özkuyumcu (Founder) + Claude Opus 4.6
Research: Global exporter data (WTO, Census Bureau, Eurostat, TIM), PLG benchmarks (OpenView, Baremetrics, Mixpanel), competitor pricing (April 2026 verified)
Supersedes: _archive_v074/05-roi-scoring.md (v1.0 — DEPRECATED)
1. Total Addressable Market (TAM)
Definition
TAM = All SME B2B exporting companies globally × annual value of buyer discovery tooling
Global B2B Exporter Count
| Region | Exporting Companies | SME Share | Source |
|---|
| United States | ~300,000 | 97.5% (~292K SMEs) | US Census Bureau, 2022 data (2024 release) |
| European Union | ~735,000 | 98% (~720K SMEs) | Eurostat TEC, 2022 |
| Turkey | ~105,000-115,000 | 80-85% (~90K SMEs) | TIM 2024 Annual Report |
| UK | ~100,000-120,000 | 95%+ | HMRC |
| China | ~600,000-800,000 | — | Ministry of Commerce (est.) |
| India | ~200,000-300,000 | — | DGFT (IEC holders) |
| Japan + South Korea | ~150,000-170,000 | — | JETRO, KITA |
| Southeast Asia | ~500,000-700,000 | — | Vietnam/Thailand/Indonesia Customs |
| MENA (excl. Turkey) | ~80,000-120,000 | — | Trade authority estimates |
| Latin America | ~300,000-400,000 | — | MDIC, INEGI, various |
| Rest of World | ~200,000-300,000 | — | Estimate |
| Global Total | ~3.0-3.5M (regular exporters) | ~95-98% | Aggregated |
TAM Calculation
Approach 1: SaaS spend per exporter
| Component | Value |
|---|
| Global SME exporters | ~2.9M (conservative) |
| % with budget for SaaS tools | ~50% (1.45M — many micro-exporters lack any tool budget) |
| Average annual SaaS tool spend potential | 600−1,800/yr (50−150/mo) |
| TAM (SaaS) | 870M−2.6B |
| Component | Value |
|---|
| SME exporters with active buyer research | ~1.5M |
| Current avg spend (fairs + tools + intermediaries) | 20,000−80,000/yr |
| Displaceable by software (10-20%) | 2,000−16,000/yr |
| TAM (total displacement) | 3.0B−24.0B |
| Market | Size (2025) | CAGR | Source |
|---|
| Sales intelligence | $4.5-5.5B | 25-30% | Grand View Research, MarketsandMarkets |
| Trade directories | ~$500M (Europe) | -5% (declining) | Estimate |
| Import/export data | ~$1.2B | 10% | Market estimate |
| Adjacent total | ~$6.2-6.7B | — | |
TAM Summary
| Method | TAM Range |
|---|
| SaaS spend per exporter | 0.9B−2.6B |
| Research spend displacement | 3.0B−24.0B |
| Adjacent market sum | 6.2B−6.7B |
| Working TAM | 2.0B−3.0B (conservative SaaS-only, validated against adjacent markets) |
2. Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM)
Definition
SAM = Exporters Cernio can realistically serve with current product capabilities, language support, and pricing
SAM Filters
| Filter | Applied | Remaining |
|---|
| Start: Global SME exporters | — | 2,900,000 |
| Language: English + Turkish UI (product works globally but marketing is EN/TR) | ~60% addressable | 1,740,000 |
| Internet/SaaS adoption: Companies with digital workflow maturity | ~40% of remaining | 696,000 |
| Industry fit: B2B with distributor/reseller discovery need | ~70% | 487,000 |
| Price fit: Can afford $49-199/mo SaaS | ~60% | 292,000 |
| SAM (companies) | | ~290,000 |
SAM by Region (within reachable segments)
| Region | Reachable SME Exporters | Share |
|---|
| Turkey (beachhead) | 40,000-50,000 | 15% |
| EU (Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands) | 100,000-120,000 | 38% |
| US + UK | 80,000-100,000 | 32% |
| MENA + Central Asia | 20,000-30,000 | 8% |
| Other (India, SEA, LatAm early adopters) | 15,000-25,000 | 7% |
| Total SAM | ~290,000 | 100% |
SAM Revenue
| Component | Value |
|---|
| SAM companies | 290,000 |
| Blended ARPU (Pro + Team weighted) | 720/yr( 60/mo average) |
| SAM Revenue | ~$209M/yr |
3. Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)
Definition
SOM = Realistic customer count in 3-5 years given solo founder resources, bootstrap constraints, and market adoption curves
SOM — Year 1 (April 2026 - March 2027)
Acquisition Channel Model
Channel 1: DOSE Trade Fair Card Pool (Warm Leads)
| Step | Value | Assumption |
|---|
| Digitized business cards (DOSE Chemicals + Textile) | ~3,000 contacts | Founder-confirmed: years of trade fair accumulation, digitized |
| Relevant to Cernio (B2B exporters, not suppliers/irrelevant) | 40-50% → 1,200-1,500 | Many are suppliers to DOSE, domestic-only, or irrelevant sectors |
| Reachable via email (valid, not bounced) | 80% → 960-1,200 | Some emails outdated |
| Email → signup conversion | 15-20% (warm leads) | Known contacts, personalized outreach |
| Signups from email | 144-240 | Significantly larger pool than typical solo founder |
| Signup → activation | 35-40% | |
| Activation → paid (90 days) | 8-10% (warm leads, higher than cold) | |
| Paid from email | 4-10 | Strong channel |
| Step | Value | Assumption |
|---|
| Monthly targeted connections/DMs | 100-150 | LinkedIn Pro limits |
| Connection accept rate | 30-40% | B2B export managers |
| Connection → signup | 5-8% | |
| Monthly signups | 2-5 | |
| Annual signups (10 active months) | 20-50 | |
| Signup → activation → paid pipeline | 8-10% conversion | |
| Paid from LinkedIn | 2-5 | |
| Step | Value | Assumption |
|---|
| Monthly organic visitors (Y1 avg) | 200-500 | Very low — no SEO investment, no paid traffic |
| Visitor → signup | 5% | |
| Monthly signups | 10-25 | |
| Annual signups | 120-300 | |
| Freemium → paid (90 days) | 3-5% | Standard PLG benchmark |
| Paid from PLG | 4-15 | |
| Step | Value | Assumption |
|---|
| Personal acquaintances pitched directly | 30-50 | People founder knows personally from DOSE |
| Pitch → trial | 40-60% (high trust) | |
| Trial → paid | 15-25% (personalized onboarding) | |
| Paid from personal | 2-8 | |
Y1 Summary
| Scenario | Email | LinkedIn | PLG | Personal | Total Paid |
|---|
| Conservative | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| Realistic | 7 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 22 |
| Optimistic | 10 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 38 |
| Scenario | Paying customers (avg active) | Monthly revenue (end of Y1) | Y1 Total Revenue |
|---|
| Conservative | ~7 avg | $343/mo | ~$2,000 |
| Realistic | ~13 avg | $637/mo | ~$4,500 |
| Optimistic | ~25 avg | $1,225/mo | ~$9,000 |
Note: Beta starts August 2026. Revenue begins ~November 2026. Y1 has only 4-5 months of potential revenue.
SOM — Year 2 (April 2027 - March 2028)
| Growth Driver | Impact |
|---|
| PLG organic growth (SEO, content flywheel starting) | 2-3x more signups |
| Word of mouth / referrals from Y1 users | 10-20% of Y1 base refers |
| LinkedIn content gaining traction | More inbound |
| First case studies / ROI proof | Higher conversion rates |
| Team plan adoption | Higher ARPU |
| Possible: 1-2 trade fair visits (funded by Y1 revenue) | 5-15 leads per fair |
| Scenario | End-of-Year Paying Customers | MRR (end) | Y2 Total Revenue |
|---|
| Conservative | 25-35 | 1,500−2,000 | 12,000−18,000 |
| Realistic | 50-80 | 3,000−5,000 | 30,000−50,000 |
| Optimistic | 100-150 | 7,000−10,000 | 60,000−90,000 |
SOM — Year 3 (April 2028 - March 2029)
| Growth Driver | Impact |
|---|
| PLG flywheel at scale | SEO ranks, content backlog, product refinement |
| Team/Enterprise plans | ARPU expansion |
| EU expansion (English content works) | New geography |
| Pipeline v2 (10-stage) improving quality | Better retention, higher NPS |
| Possible: First hire (part-time marketer or support) | 2x GTM capacity |
| Scenario | End-of-Year Paying Customers | MRR (end) | Y3 Total Revenue |
|---|
| Conservative | 60-80 | 4,000−6,000 | 40,000−60,000 |
| Realistic | 150-250 | 10,000−18,000 | 100,000−180,000 |
| Optimistic | 350-500 | 25,000−40,000 | 250,000−400,000 |
SOM 3-Year Summary
| Metric | Conservative | Realistic | Optimistic |
|---|
| Y3 paying customers | 60-80 | 150-250 | 350-500 |
| Y3 ARR | 48K−72K | 120K−216K | 300K−480K |
| Y3 MRR | 4K−6K | 10K−18K | 25K−40K |
| SOM % of SAM | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.17% |
Even the optimistic scenario captures less than 0.2% of SAM — confirming the market is massive relative to realistic capture.
4. Unit Economics
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
| Channel | Cash CAC | Time Cost (founder hrs) | Effective CAC* |
|---|
| DOSE fair card email | ~$5 (email tool) | 2-3 hrs per conversion | $15-25 |
| LinkedIn organic outreach | $0 (Pro already paid) | 5-8 hrs per conversion | $30-50 |
| PLG self-serve signup | $0 | 0 hrs (automated) | $5-15 |
| Personal 1-on-1 pitch | $0 | 3-5 hrs per conversion | $20-35 |
| Blended CAC (Y1) | ~$5 (cash) | | ~$25 (with time) |
Customer Lifetime Value (LTV)
| Scenario | Monthly Churn | Avg Lifetime (months) | Monthly ARPU | LTV |
|---|
| Conservative (5% churn) | 5% | 20 months | $49 | $980 |
| Realistic (4% churn) | 4% | 25 months | $52* | $1,300 |
| Optimistic (3% churn) | 3% | 33 months | $55* | $1,815 |
LTV:CAC Ratio
| Scenario | LTV | Blended CAC | LTV:CAC | Verdict |
|---|
| Conservative | $980 | $25 | 39:1 | Exceptional (benchmark: >3:1) |
| Realistic | $1,300 | $25 | 52:1 | Exceptional |
| Optimistic | $1,815 | $20 | 91:1 | Exceptional |
These ratios are extremely high because CAC is near-zero (founder-driven, warm leads, PLG). This is the bootstrap advantage. As the company scales and adds paid channels, LTV:CAC will normalize toward 10-20:1 — still excellent.
CAC Payback Period
| Scenario | CAC | Monthly ARPU | Payback |
|---|
| Conservative | $25 | $49 | <1 month |
| With paid channels (Y2+) | $100 | $55 | ~2 months |
| Industry benchmark | $200-500 | $49 | 4-10 months |
Gross Margin
| Component | Per Pro User/Month | Notes |
|---|
| Revenue | $49.00 | Pro plan |
| AI API cost (balanced scenario) | -$2.56 | 50 discovery + 100 headhunt + 20 enrichment |
| Lemon Squeezy fee (~5.5%) | -$2.70 | MoR commission |
| Infrastructure (allocated) | -$0.50 | Hetzner €6.99 ÷ users |
| Gross profit | $43.24 | |
| Gross margin | 88.2% | |
| User Scale | AI Cost/User | Infra/User | LS Fee | Gross Margin |
|---|
| 10 users | $2.56 | $0.70 | $2.70 | 87.8% |
| 50 users | $2.56 | $0.26 | $2.70 | 88.7% |
| 200 users | $2.56 | $0.08 | $2.70 | 89.1% |
| 1,000 users | $2.00* | $0.03 | $2.70 | 90.3% |
5. Competitor Pricing Comparison
Price per Discovery Equivalent
What does $49/month buy you for buyer discovery?
| Platform | Monthly Cost | What You Get | Discovery Equivalent |
|---|
| Cernio Pro | $49 | 50 AI discoveries + 100 contact reveals + lead workspace | 50 AI-ranked buyer lists |
| Apollo Basic | $49/user | 5,000 credits/yr (~416/mo). Each “find” = 1 credit. | ~416 contact lookups (no discovery, no scoring) |
| Lusha Pro | $52/user | ~250 credits/mo. Phone = 10cr, email = 1cr. | ~25 phone reveals OR 250 email reveals |
| RocketReach Essentials | $33/mo | 100 lookups/mo | 100 contact lookups |
| Clay Launch | $185/mo | 15,000 actions + data credits | DIY enrichment (no pre-built discovery) |
| ZoomInfo Professional | $1,250/mo | Custom credits + intent data | Enterprise search + intent signals |
| Cognism Grow | $1,375/mo | ”Unlimited” (fair-use) | Full platform, EMEA strength |
| Kompass EasyBusiness | ~$125/mo | List access + AI assistant | Static directory browsing |
Unique Value per Dollar
| Feature | Cernio ($49/mo) | Nearest Competitor | Price for Same Feature |
|---|
| AI buyer discovery (product → ranked companies) | ✅ Included | None offer this | N/A — no competitor |
| Company type classification (distributor/reseller/end-user) | ✅ Included | None offer this | N/A — no competitor |
| FitScore ranking | ✅ Included | None offer this | N/A — no competitor |
| Contact reveal (decision makers) | ✅ 100/mo | Apollo: 416/mo ($49) | Apollo comparable on volume |
| Lead workspace (light CRM) | ✅ Included | HubSpot Free | $0 (but separate tool) |
| Web search-powered discovery | ✅ Included | Perplexity direct ($20+) | $20+/mo for API access |
6. Break-Even Analysis
Fixed Costs (Monthly)
| Cost | Amount | Notes |
|---|
| Hetzner VPS (CAX21 + backup + IPv4) | €8.29 (~$9) | MVP plan |
| Supabase | $0 | Free tier (up to 500MB, 50K MAU) |
| Domain + DNS | $2 | Amortized |
| Email service (Brevo/Resend free tier) | $0 | Up to 300 emails/day |
| LinkedIn Pro | $60 | Already paid, GTM tool |
| Misc tools | $10 | |
| Total fixed | ~$81/mo | |
Variable Costs (Per Paying User/Month)
| Cost | Amount |
|---|
| AI API (balanced) | $2.56 |
| Lemon Squeezy (5.5%) | $2.70 |
| Total variable/user | $5.26 |
Break-Even Point
| Metric | Calculation | Result |
|---|
| Contribution margin per user | 49.00−5.26 | $43.74 |
| Fixed costs to cover | $81/mo | |
| Break-even users | 81÷43.74 | 2 paying users |
Cernio breaks even with just 2 paying Pro users. This is the power of near-zero infrastructure costs + high gross margin.
Cash Flow Positive Timeline
| Scenario | When 2 Paying Users? | Revenue at Break-Even |
|---|
| Conservative | Month 7 (November 2026) | $98/mo |
| Realistic | Month 6 (October 2026) | $98/mo |
| Optimistic | Month 5 (September 2026) | $98/mo |
7. Investor ROI Scorecard
For context: founder’s approach is “open door” — bootstrap primary, raise if the right opportunity comes.
Key Metrics Summary
| Metric | Value | Benchmark | Score |
|---|
| TAM | $2.0-3.0B | >$1B = attractive | ✅ Strong |
| SAM | ~$209M | >$100M = viable | ✅ Strong |
| Gross Margin | 88-90% | >80% = excellent for SaaS | ✅ Excellent |
| LTV:CAC | 39-91:1 | >3:1 = healthy | ✅ Exceptional* |
| CAC Payback | <1 month | <12 months = good | ✅ Exceptional* |
| Break-Even | 2 users | Low = capital-efficient | ✅ Excellent |
| Market Growth (CAGR) | 25-30% | >20% = high growth | ✅ Strong |
| Competitive Moat | Company type classification | Unique = defensible | ✅ Strong |
| PMF Validation | None (pre-beta) | Not yet proven | ⚠️ Risk |
| Team | Solo founder | Bus factor = 1 | ⚠️ Risk |
| Revenue | $0 (pre-launch) | No traction yet | ⚠️ Risk |
Rule of 40 Projection
| Year | Revenue Growth Rate | Profit Margin | Rule of 40 |
|---|
| Y1 | N/A (pre-revenue → first revenue) | Negative (development cost) | N/A |
| Y2 (realistic) | 300-500% | 50-70% (near-zero COGS) | >100% ✅ |
| Y3 (realistic) | 150-250% | 60-75% | >100% ✅ |
Rule of 40 is easily met due to high growth + high margins. This metric becomes more meaningful at $1M+ ARR.
8. Risk-Adjusted Scenarios
Monte Carlo-Style Parameter Ranges
| Parameter | Low | Base | High |
|---|
| Y3 paying customers | 60 | 200 | 500 |
| Blended ARPU | $45/mo | $55/mo | $70/mo |
| Annual churn | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Expansion revenue % | 0% | 10% | 25% |
Scenario Outcomes (Y3)
| Scenario | Customers | ARR | Monthly Burn | Cash Position |
|---|
| Bear | 60 | $32K | +$2K/mo profit | Self-sustaining |
| Base | 200 | $132K | +$9K/mo profit | Growing |
| Bull | 500 | $420K | +$30K/mo profit | Ready for acceleration |
Document Dependencies
| For Deeper Analysis… | See Document |
|---|
| Detailed pricing re-evaluation | BIZ-2: Revenue & Cost Structure (pending) |
| Full 3-year financial model | BIZ-3: Financial Projections (pending) |
| Infrastructure cost at scale | BIZ-7: Production Simulation (pending) |
| SWOT cross-strategies | BIZ-4: SWOT Analysis |
| Competitive feature matrix | BIZ-9: Competitive Positioning (pending) |
| Investor analysis | BIZ-6: Investor Analysis (pending) |
Sources
- US Census Bureau: Profile of U.S. Importing and Exporting Companies (2022 data, 2024 release)
- Eurostat: Trade by Enterprise Characteristics (TEC, 2022)
- TIM: Turkiye Ihracatcilar Meclisi 2024 Annual Report
- WTO: World Trade Statistical Review 2024, Global Trade Outlook April 2025
- Grand View Research, MarketsandMarkets: Sales Intelligence market reports (2024-2025)
- OpenView Partners: PLG Index 2023, 2024
- Baremetrics: Open Benchmarks 2024
- Mixpanel, Amplitude: Product Benchmarks 2024
- ProfitWell/Paddle: Pricing & Retention Benchmarks 2024
- Chargebee: Subscription Benchmarks 2024
- UFI: Global Exhibition Barometer 2024
- Competitor pricing: Apollo.io, ZoomInfo, Cognism, Lusha, Clay, RocketReach, Kompass — April 2026 verified
