Documentation Index
Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://cernio.gadulabs.com/llms.txt
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Cernio — Investor Analysis
Version: 2.0
Date: 2026-04-03
Author: Aleks Özkuyumcu (Founder) + Claude Opus 4.6
Strategy: Open door — bootstrap primary, raise if the right opportunity comes
Basis: All BIZ documents (1-9), Handbook, Strategy docs
Supersedes: _archive_v074/06-investor-analysis.md (v1.0 — DEPRECATED)
1. Current Position
| Attribute | Value |
|---|
| Stage | Pre-revenue, pre-beta |
| Product | v0.74 — AI discovery, headhunt, lead workspace built |
| Team | Solo founder (10+ years B2B export industry) |
| Revenue | $0 |
| Users | 0 (DOSE Chemicals = internal test, not customer) |
| Funding | $0 raised, bootstrapped |
| Monthly burn | ~$100-150 |
| Cash runway | Unlimited (founder self-funds, costs near-zero) |
| Tech stack | Next.js 16, Supabase, multi-provider AI, Docker/Hetzner |
2. Funding Strategy: Open Door
Primary Path: Bootstrap
Rationale:
- Monthly burn is ~$100-150. Break-even at 2 paying customers.
- No salary pressure (founder bootstraps from savings/other income).
- Product is 80%+ built. Remaining work is Ring 1 (auth, billing, onboarding).
- First revenue expected within 6-8 months.
- $0 CAC channels available (DOSE contacts, LinkedIn, PLG).
Bootstrap timeline:
Apr-Aug 2026 → Complete Ring 1 (auth, billing, onboarding)
Aug 2026 → Beta launch (free users)
Oct-Nov 2026 → First paying customers
Apr 2027 → Cumulative cash positive
Mar 2028 → ~$80K ARR, 100+ customers
Mar 2029 → ~$246K ARR, 275+ customers
Secondary Path: Raise If…
| Trigger | Scenario | Amount | Purpose |
|---|
| PMF validated + want to accelerate | 50+ paying customers, MRR > $3K | $200K-500K pre-seed | Hire 1-2 people (engineer + marketer), trade fair budget |
| Competitive threat | Direct competitor enters with funding | $500K-1M seed | Speed to market, data moat building |
| Enterprise demand | Large company wants custom features | $0 (revenue-funded) | Or raise to build enterprise faster |
When NOT to Raise
- Before PMF (waste of equity)
- For “runway” (burn is already near-zero)
- Because competitors raised (their burn is the weakness, not ours)
- For vanity metrics (MRR matters, not valuation)
3. Valuation Framework
Pre-Revenue (Now)
| Method | Valuation Range | Basis |
|---|
| Berkus method (pre-revenue) | $500K-1M | Sound idea + prototype + domain expertise |
| Comparable pre-seed (B2B SaaS, Turkey/EU) | $1M-3M | Market standard for pre-seed with working product |
| Cost-to-recreate | $150K-300K | 12+ months of development, AI pipeline, domain knowledge |
At PMF (50+ Customers, $3K+ MRR)
| Method | Valuation | Basis |
|---|
| Revenue multiple (15-25x ARR for early SaaS) | $540K-900K | $36K ARR × 15-25x |
| Comparable seed round | $3M-6M | SaaS with proven PMF, high margin, growing |
| Traction-adjusted | $2M-5M | Customer count + growth rate + margin quality |
At Scale ($80K+ ARR, 100+ Customers)
| Method | Valuation | Basis |
|---|
| Revenue multiple (10-20x ARR) | $800K-1.6M | Conservative for $80K ARR |
| Growth-adjusted | $2M-4M | If growing 200%+ YoY |
| Comparable Series A | $5M-10M | B2B SaaS with 100+ customers, strong unit economics |
4. Dilution Scenarios
Scenario A: No Raise (Bootstrap Only)
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|
| Founder equity | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Revenue | $3K | $48K | $168K |
| Cash accumulated | -$2K | $28K | $129K |
Scenario B: Small Pre-Seed ($250K at PMF)
| Event | Dilution | Founder % |
|---|
| Pre-seed (250Kat2M pre-money) | 11% | 89% |
| Option pool (10%) | 10% | 80% |
| Final founder equity | | ~80% |
Scenario C: Seed Round ($750K at Growth)
| Event | Dilution | Founder % |
|---|
| Pre-seed (250Kat2M) | 11% | 89% |
| Seed (750Kat6M pre-money) | 11% | 79% |
| Option pool expansion (+5%) | 5% | 75% |
| Final founder equity | | ~75% |
5. Investor Profile
Ideal Investor
| Attribute | Why |
|---|
| B2B SaaS experience | Understands PLG metrics, SaaS economics |
| Export/trade industry knowledge | Bonus — can open doors, provide intros |
| Turkey/EMEA network | Beachhead market, first customers |
| Comfortable with solo founder | Must trust founder execution, not require co-founder |
| Patient capital | Bootstrap-compatible — not pushing for hyper-growth |
| Check size $100K-500K | Pre-seed appropriate, not overvaluing |
Investor Types
| Type | Fit | Examples |
|---|
| Angel investors (B2B/trade background) | ✅ Best fit | Export executives, trade fair veterans, SaaS founders |
| Micro VCs ($50K-500K checks) | ✅ Good fit | 500 Istanbul, Revo Capital, Collective Spark |
| Accelerators | ⚠️ Selective | Y Combinator (if accepted), Techstars |
| Traditional VCs | ❌ Too early | Not appropriate pre-PMF |
| Strategic investors (trade associations) | ✅ Unique opportunity | TIM, DEIK, industry associations |
6. Pitch Deck Outline (10 Slides)
| Slide | Content | Key Message |
|---|
| 1. Cover | Cernio — AI Buyer Discovery for B2B Exporters | Category-defining |
| 2. Problem | 3-4 hours manual research per market. 2.5M SME exporters underserved. | Massive pain, massive market |
| 3. Solution | Product + Country → AI-ranked buyers in 30 seconds | Live demo screenshot |
| 4. Demo | Show real discovery result with company types + FitScore | ”This is what no competitor offers” |
| 5. Market | TAM 2−3B.SAM209M. 2.5M underserved exporters. | Market is real and growing 25%+ CAGR |
| 6. Business Model | $49/mo Pro, 75%+ gross margin, LTV:CAC 39:1 | Capital-efficient |
| 7. Traction | Beta users, early conversion metrics, DOSE pilot | If available at time of pitch |
| 8. Competition | Matrix showing no competitor has AI buyer discovery + classification | Blue ocean positioning |
| 9. Team | Solo founder, 10+ years B2B export, AI-assisted development | Domain expertise + technical execution |
| 10. Ask | $250K pre-seed for team + GTM acceleration | Clear use of funds |
7. Exit Scenarios (Long-Term)
Potential Acquirers
| Acquirer Type | Examples | Rationale | Timing |
|---|
| Sales intelligence platforms | Apollo, ZoomInfo, Cognism | Acquire vertical expertise + export segment | $5M+ ARR |
| CRM platforms | HubSpot, Pipedrive | Add buyer discovery to CRM | $2M+ ARR |
| Trade directory companies | Kompass, Visable/Europages | Modernize with AI | $1M+ ARR |
| Trade finance/logistics | Flexport, Trade Finance Global | Expand B2B trade ecosystem | $5M+ ARR |
| Private equity | Various | Consolidation play in B2B SaaS | $3M+ ARR |
Exit Multiples (B2B SaaS, 2025-2026 Market)
| ARR | Expected Multiple | Valuation Range |
|---|
| $1M | 8-15x | $8M-15M |
| $3M | 10-20x | $30M-60M |
| $10M | 12-25x | $120M-250M |
These are illustrative. Actual multiples depend on growth rate, retention, margin, and market conditions.
Preferred Path
Bootstrap → Profitability → Raise for acceleration (if needed) → Grow to $3M+ ARR → Strategic exit or continue growing.
The founder’s preference is to build a profitable, sustainable business — not a “unicorn or bust” venture. Exit is an option, not the goal.
8. Risk Factors for Investors
| Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|
| Solo founder (bus factor = 1) | HIGH | First hire addresses this. AI tools extend capacity. |
| Pre-revenue (no PMF proof) | HIGH | Working product (v0.74). Beta launch imminent. DOSE contact pool for first users. |
| No proprietary data moat yet | MEDIUM | Compounding with usage. First-mover advantage. |
| AI cost uncertainty (pipeline v2) | MEDIUM | Multi-provider architecture. Costs trending down 50-80%/yr. |
| Regulatory (GDPR, AI Act) | MEDIUM | EU hosting, human review workflow, compliance sprint planned. |
| Market adoption (conservative B2B) | MEDIUM | Trade fair culture = demo-driven. Free tier for trust building. |
| Competition (Apollo, Clay growing fast) | MEDIUM | Vertical depth (supply chain classification) is structural moat. |
Document Dependencies
| Related | Document |
|---|
| Financial projections | BIZ-3: Financial Projections |
| Market sizing | BIZ-5: ROI & Market Sizing |
| Unit economics | BIZ-2: Revenue & Cost Structure |
| Competitive defense | BIZ-9: Competitive Positioning |
| SWOT analysis | BIZ-4: SWOT Analysis |
| Production costs | BIZ-7: Production Simulation |
| GTM plan | BIZ-8: GTM Strategy |
