Cernio — Revenue & Cost Structure

Version: 2.0 Date: 2026-04-03 Author: Aleks Özkuyumcu (Founder) + Claude Opus 4.6 Basis: BILL-19 decisions (March 2026), pipeline v2 cost modeling (BIZ-7), competitor pricing (BIZ-4/9) Supersedes: _archive_v074/02-revenue-cost-structure.md (v1.0 — DEPRECATED)

1. Pricing Re-Evaluation

Context

BILL-19 (March 2026) set Pro at

49/mo based on current 3-stage pipeline costs (~

0.04/discovery). Pipeline v2 (10 stages, handbook spec) increases per-discovery cost to ~$0.10-0.15. This section re-evaluates whether BILL-19 pricing still holds.

Decision Framework

Factor	Input	Source
Pipeline v2 AI cost per Pro user/month	$8.60 (optimized)	BIZ-7
Lemon Squeezy fee	5.5% of revenue	Strategy doc 04
Infrastructure per user (50 users)	$0.68/mo	BIZ-7
Total COGS per Pro user	$11.98/mo	BIZ-7
Target gross margin	>70% (SaaS benchmark: 65%+)	Industry standard
Competitor entry pricing	$33-185/mo	BIZ-9
Unique value (no competitor)	AI buyer discovery + classification	BIZ-9

Price Point Analysis

Pro Price	COGS	Gross Margin	vs Apollo Basic ($49)	vs Clay ($185)	Verdict
$39/mo	$11.98	69.3%	Undercuts	79% cheaper	⚠️ Tight margin
$49/mo	$11.98	75.6%	Same price, more value	74% cheaper	✅ Recommended
$59/mo	$11.98	79.7%	$10 premium, justified by unique AI	68% cheaper	✅ Also viable
$69/mo	$11.98	82.6%	$20 premium	63% cheaper	⚠️ May slow adoption

Pricing Decision: $49/mo Confirmed

BILL-19 pricing holds. Rationale:

75.6% gross margin — above SaaS benchmark (65%) even with pipeline v2
Same price as Apollo Basic — easy mental comparison, but Cernio offers AI discovery that Apollo doesn’t
10x cheaper than enterprise alternatives — $468/yr vs$ 15K+/yr (ZoomInfo/Cognism)
“No-brainer” threshold — $49/mo is below the$ 100/mo decision threshold where a single person can approve without procurement
Premium pricing possible later — once pipeline v2 quality is proven and case studies exist, $59-69/mo upgrade is natural

2. Plan Structure

Active Plans (Launch)

Plan	Monthly	Annual (-20%)	Target Audience	Status
Free	$0	—	Trial, activation, WOW moment	Active at launch
Pro	$49/mo	$39/mo ($ 468/yr)	Individual exporters, solo sales managers	Active at launch

Deferred Plans (Post-Launch)

Plan	Monthly	Annual (-20%)	Target Audience	Status
Team	$149/mo	$119/mo ($ 1,428/yr)	Export teams (2-10 members)	DB defined, UI/billing later
Enterprise	Custom	Custom	Large organizations, multi-org	Manual onboarding

Launch with Free + Pro only. Team plan activates when first multi-user request comes. Enterprise is founder-sold.

Plan Limits

Feature	Free	Pro	Team	Enterprise
Discovery searches/month	5	50	200	Unlimited
Companies per search	10	25	25	50
Contact reveal/month	0 ❌	100	500	Unlimited
Saved leads	10	Unlimited	Unlimited	Unlimited
Members	1	1	10	Unlimited
Organizations	1	1	1	Unlimited
Batch operations	❌	❌	✅	✅
API access	❌	❌	❌	✅
Auto-headhunt	❌	✅	✅	✅
AI company analysis	❌	✅	✅	✅
Shared workspace	❌	❌	✅	✅

3. Credit Economy

Credit Cost per Action

Action	Credits	AI Cost (pipeline v2, optimized)	Notes
Discovery search	1	~$0.15	1 search = 25 ranked companies
Contact reveal	1	~$0.01	1 decision maker identification
Deep company analysis	2	~$0.02	Detailed company enrichment
Market intelligence report	3	~$0.10	Multi-call pipeline (future)
Batch operation (per company)	0.5	~$0.0001	Classify/score, minimal cost

Credits consumed from plan quota first. Only excess usage consumes purchased credit packs.

Credit Pack Pricing

Pack	Credits	Price	$/Credit	Margin
Small	50	$12	$0.24	~93% (AI cost ~$0.015/credit avg)
Medium	200	$45	$0.225	~93%
Large	1,000	$200	$0.20	~93%

Comparison: Apollo charges

0.20/credit for basic email export. Cernio charges

0.20-0.24/credit for AI discovery + classification + headhunt — significantly more value per credit.

Credit Rollover

Unused plan credits accumulate up to 2x monthly limit
Example: Pro user (100 reveals/month) → max 200 accumulated, then new month doesn’t add
Credit packs: 12-month expiry, no rollover
Rollover resets on plan downgrade

4. Revenue Model

Revenue Streams

Stream	Type	Y1	Y2	Y3
Pro subscriptions	Recurring	85-90%	70-75%	55-65%
Team subscriptions	Recurring	0%	10-15%	15-20%
Credit packs	One-time	5-10%	8-12%	10-15%
Annual plan premium	Recurring	5%	8-10%	10-12%
Enterprise	Custom	0%	2-5%	5-10%
API access	Usage-based	0%	0%	2-5%

Revenue Formula

MRR = (Pro users × $49) + (Team users × $149) + (Enterprise custom)
    + (Credit pack revenue ÷ 12)  — amortized
    + (Annual plan uplift)

ARR = MRR × 12

Blended ARPU Projection

Year	Pro %	Team %	Ent. %	Credit Pack	Blended Monthly ARPU
Y1	95%	0%	0%	5%	$51
Y2	80%	12%	3%	5%	$60
Y3	65%	20%	5%	10%	$72

5. Cost Structure

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) — Per User

Component	Pro User/Month	% of $49
AI API (pipeline v2, optimized)	$8.60	17.6%
Lemon Squeezy (5.5% of revenue)	$2.70	5.5%
Infrastructure (allocated)	$0.20-0.70	0.4-1.4%
Total COGS	$11.50-12.00	23.5-24.5%
Gross Profit	$37.00-37.50	75.5-76.5%

Operating Expenses (Non-COGS)

Category	Y1	Y2	Y3
Founder time (valued at $0 — bootstrap)	$0	$0	$0
LinkedIn Pro membership	$720/yr	$720	$720
Legal (Privacy Policy, ToS, LIA review)	$1,500-3,000	$500	$500
Accounting (tax filing)	$500	$500	$1,000
Misc tools & services	$200	$500	$1,000
Trade fair attendance	$0	$3,000-5,000	$5,000-10,000
First hire (part-time, Y3)	$0	$0	$12,000-24,000
Total OpEx	~$3,000-4,500	~$5,500-7,000	~$20,000-37,000

Total Cost Summary (Annual)

Year	COGS	OpEx	Total Cost	Revenue	Net Margin
Y1	~$1,000-2,000	~$3,500	~$4,500-5,500	$2,000-9,000	-55% to +39%
Y2	~$5,000-15,000	~$6,000	~$11,000-21,000	$30,000-90,000	63-77%
Y3	~$20,000-80,000	~$25,000	~$45,000-105,000	$100,000-400,000	55-74%

6. Payment Provider: Lemon Squeezy

Why Lemon Squeezy (Not Stripe)

Factor	Lemon Squeezy	Stripe
Turkey registration	✅ Accepts Turkish companies	⚠️ Requires local entity or Atlas
Merchant of Record	✅ LS is legal seller	❌ You are the seller
VAT/sales tax handling	✅ Automatic (global)	❌ You handle it
Invoicing compliance	✅ LS handles	❌ You handle
PCI DSS	✅ LS handles	✅ Stripe handles
Commission	~5-8% + $0.50/tx	2.9% + $0.30
Subscription management	✅ Built-in	✅ Built-in
Refund handling	✅ LS handles (30-day policy)	❌ You handle

Key advantage: Lemon Squeezy as Merchant of Record absorbs tax compliance, invoicing, and legal seller obligations. This saves 10-20 hours/month of accounting work and removes legal complexity. Known limitation: Turkish B2B customers may need GIB-compliant e-fatura. LS invoices are legally valid globally but may not integrate with Turkish accounting software. Deferred to post-beta evaluation.

LS Fee Impact

Revenue/Month	LS Fee (~5.5%)	Net After Fee
$490 (10 users)	$27	$463
$2,450 (50 users)	$135	$2,315
$9,800 (200 users)	$539	$9,261
$55,000 (1K users)	$3,025	$51,975

At $55K MRR, LS fee is$ 36K/year. If volume justifies, evaluate Paddle or direct Stripe (with VAT tooling) for 2-3% savings.

7. Unit Economics Summary

Metric	Value	Benchmark	Status
Gross Margin	75-82%	>65% (SaaS standard)	✅ Excellent
LTV (5% churn)	$980	—
LTV (4% churn)	$1,300	—
Blended CAC (Y1, warm)	$25	—
LTV:CAC	39-52:1	>3:1	✅ Exceptional
CAC Payback	<1 month	<12 months	✅ Exceptional
Break-Even	2 users	—	✅ Capital-efficient
ARPU (Y1)	$51/mo	—
ARPU (Y3, blended)	$72/mo	—

Revenue per Employee (Founder-Only)

Scale	Revenue	”Employees”	Rev/Employee
50 users	$29.4K/yr	1	$29,400
200 users	$117.6K/yr	1	$117,600
500 users	$330K/yr	1.5 (part-time hire)	$220,000
1,000 users	$660K/yr	2	$330,000

8. Sensitivity Analysis

What If Pipeline v2 Costs More Than Expected?

AI Cost/User/Month	Gross Margin (Pro $49)	Action Required?
$6.00 (optimistic)	80.4%	No — excellent margin
$8.60 (baseline)	75.6%	No — strong margin
$12.00 (pessimistic)	69.2%	Monitor — still above benchmark
$15.00 (worst case)	63.1%	Consider $59/mo price or model optimization
$20.00 (extreme)	52.8%	Price increase required ($59-69/mo)

What If Churn Is Higher Than Expected?

Monthly Churn	Avg Lifetime	LTV (Pro)	LTV:CAC (at $25 CAC)
3% (optimistic)	33 months	$1,617	65:1
5% (baseline)	20 months	$980	39:1
7% (pessimistic)	14 months	$686	27:1
10% (worst case)	10 months	$490	20:1

Even at 10% monthly churn (extremely high), LTV:CAC is 20:1 — still well above the 3:1 benchmark.

What If Lemon Squeezy Increases Fees?

LS Fee	Impact on Margin	Action
5.5% (current)	Baseline	—
8%	-2.5 points (73.1%)	Acceptable
10%	-4.5 points (71.1%)	Evaluate Paddle/Stripe
12%+	-6.5+ points	Switch provider

Document Dependencies

Related	Document
Infrastructure cost details	BIZ-7: Production Simulation
Market sizing context	BIZ-5: ROI & Market Sizing
Competitor pricing comparison	BIZ-9: Competitive Positioning
Full projections	BIZ-3: Financial Projections (next)
Strategy doc (billing architecture)	`docs/strategy/04-billing-credits.md`
AI cost benchmarks	`docs/pricing-analysis.md`

Documentation Index

​Cernio — Revenue & Cost Structure

​1. Pricing Re-Evaluation

​Context

​Decision Framework

​Price Point Analysis

​Pricing Decision: $49/mo Confirmed

​2. Plan Structure

​Active Plans (Launch)

​Deferred Plans (Post-Launch)

​Plan Limits

​3. Credit Economy

​Credit Cost per Action

​Credit Pack Pricing

​Credit Rollover

​4. Revenue Model

​Revenue Streams

​Revenue Formula

​Blended ARPU Projection

​5. Cost Structure

​Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) — Per User

​Operating Expenses (Non-COGS)

​Total Cost Summary (Annual)

​6. Payment Provider: Lemon Squeezy

​Why Lemon Squeezy (Not Stripe)

​LS Fee Impact

​7. Unit Economics Summary

​Revenue per Employee (Founder-Only)

​8. Sensitivity Analysis

​What If Pipeline v2 Costs More Than Expected?

​What If Churn Is Higher Than Expected?

​What If Lemon Squeezy Increases Fees?

​Document Dependencies